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'Katy, Bar the Door': Why Pelosi's Trip to Taiwan is Fraught With Risk of Military Escalation_我的网站

兰陵王

一 | AI摘要平潭立足地缘与文脉优势，通过升级海岸旅游、打造台湾小镇、活化壳丘头遗址，深化两岸文旅融合。 "Remember what happened in 1983? Two days after 241 Marines were blown up in Lebanon, the USA invaded tiny Grenada. Overnight, the previous headlines disappeared. I think we are seeing the same today. NATO is losing badly in Ukraine and it’s going to be a long winter for the West. Pounding its imperial chest with Taiwan is now what the MSM is reporting, much less so Ukraine," suggests Jeff J. Brown, author of "The China Trilogy," editor at China Rising Radio Sinoland, and curator of the Bioweapon Truth Commission.,If Pelosi travels to Taiwan, this would be the first time a high-ranking US politician visits the place in 25 years. Last time it was Newt Gingrich, then-speaker of the US House of Representatives, who arrived on the island in 1997, ignoring the Chinese leadership's discontent.,"I said firmly, 'We want you to understand, we will defend Taiwan. Period,'" Gingrich told the press at the time, as quoted by The New York Times. However, Clinton administration officials made it clear that Gingrich "was speaking for himself.",Likewise, it appears that Pelosi's apparent visit to Taiwan is not in line with the Biden administration's China policy, argues Francesco Sisci, a Beijing-based China expert, author, and columnist.,"American politics is not set like an omniscient Leviathan," the China expert says. "The Congress, the Senate, the executive all move according to different agendas which do not often coincide and are in conflict with one another. The issue is that there is a growing anti-Beijing sentiment in America and this has sometimes bursts which aren’t fully sorted out. I believe the visit is an expression of a sentiment, rather than of a clear cut plan.",According to CNN, Pelosi's initiative has triggered concerns both in the Biden administration and the Pentagon, with US national security officials "quietly working to convince House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of the risks of her potential trip to Taiwan." While in 1997 Beijing and Washington managed to solve the dilemma, this time the PRC leadership might opt for a harsher response, CNN and The Guardian have warned.,US Military Expansion in Asia-Pacific is Part of Plan to Take on Russo-China Tandem, Scholar Says28 July, 16:15 GMT,Washington has been fanning US-Sino tensions for quite a while, starting with Donald Trump's tariff war against Beijing, which has yet to be halted by Joe Biden. In a candid phone conversation, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned his American counterpart against "playing with fire" over Taiwan and explained that any involvement would ultimately backfire on the US.,"A Chinese general has publicly declared that Pelosi’s visit could entail a military response from Beijing," Brown says. "China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeated this. Now, with Xi’s 'You get burned playing with fire' metaphor, I think there would be a military response.",Senior Colonel Tan Kefei, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Defense, stated on July 26: "If the US insists on taking its own course, the Chinese military will never sit idly by, and it will definitely take strong actions to thwart any external force's interference.",Tan highlighted that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan would "seriously violate the one-China principle" and "seriously harm China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and seriously damage the political foundation of China-US relations.",Meanwhile, Brown surmises that China's hypothetical response "might include a declared no-fly zone." However, there is a "much more elegant option," according to the author:,"[China could] take over Taiwan’s Kinmen Island, which is only two kilometers from Xiamen, off China’s Fujian Province coast. It would take only a few hours. I do not think Beijing will strike any US targets, unless attacked first.",North Korea Ready to Mobilize Nuclear Deterrence Forces at Any Moment - Kim Jong Un28 July, 01:13 GMT,The scholar also does not rule out that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's (DPRK) remark, made earlier this week, that Pyongyang is “fully prepared” for any military conflict with the United States is no coincidence.,"Does Biden know that China and nuclear-armed North Korea have had a mutual defense treaty since 1961?" Brown asks rhetorically. "NATO is being bled dry in Ukraine and it is imperial folly, hubris or geopolitical brinkmanship to think it can fight East Asia’s biggest and most powerful military, which is only 200 km from Taiwan.",For his part, Sisci believes that the PRC could opt for an asymmetrical non-military response. Still, the unfolding crisis is complicated by the fact that Washington is already involved in a confrontation with Russia, raising questions as to whether the US is capable of taking on Moscow and Beijing at once.,"I don’t think that either China or the US wants an escalation," says Sisci. "The talk between Biden and Xi Jinping was to avoid an escalation.",Brown also believes that Beijing's warnings have been heard by Washington.,"Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has been bandied about by Washington for months now," he says. "A supposed Covid-19 infection scuttled the first trial balloon. After Biden’s phone call yesterday with Xi, I suspect another American 'postponement' is likely to occur. If not, then 'Katy, bar the door!'"。今年2月以来，台湾小镇接待游客同比增191%，以文化为桥促进心灵相通。暑期的68海里景区碧波、礁石临海铺展，游人络绎不绝。刘宇捷摄东南网8月21日报道（福建日报记者刘宇捷蒋丰蔓张颖）19日至20日，“活力中国调研行”采访团走进平潭综合实验区，探访海岸街区与考古展馆。作为祖国大陆距离台湾岛最近的海岛，平潭立足独特地理条件，赓续海峡情缘，探寻远古文明根脉。如今，两岸同根同源的文化底色，在此演绎成文旅融合发展的鲜活篇章。 20日上午，海风裹挟着咸湿气息拂过猴研岛的嶙峋礁石。在68海里景区，不少游客驻足在“祖国大陆距台湾岛最近点”标识碑旁，举着相机定格这一特殊的地理坐标。放眼整个平潭岛，这个镌刻着海峡乡愁的海岸地标早已不再依靠单一石碑吸引游人。限山岛上的黑礁音乐馆，落地大窗直面万顷碧波，民俗舞蹈、奇幻魔术轮番上演。馆内还设置有台湾商品展示售卖区，凤梨酥、一条根、高粱酒等180多种货品集中陈列。观海赏艺、休闲品读、邂逅两岸风物——游客的体验方式已从单纯打卡观光，转向更富文化内涵的沉浸式享受。

二 | 沿着海岸线前行，22号国际游艇码头帆影摇曳。作为平潭游艇产业重点项目，码头于2024年6月投入运营，共建有49个泊位，其中包含17个对台专用泊位。 “码头汇聚了游艇、帆船、摩托艇、尾波冲浪、水上超跑等热门海上项目，让游客在观光之余，也能体验水上运动的乐趣。”平潭旅游客运公司总经理陈紫良介绍，投运以来，码头累计接待游客超5.3万人次。目光从海岸转向岛内，一个个跨越海峡的“回家”故事正在温情上演。

三 | 走进平潭台湾小镇台味餐厅“同源·宝岛家宴”，一份特色菜单格外引人注目：花莲清炒时蔬、台北家园三杯鸡、澎湖白灼明虾……道道菜品对应台湾各地风土，成为小镇汇聚海峡烟火的鲜活注脚。这座总建筑面积16万平方米、由38栋闽南红厝建筑组成的对台交流载体，过去只是业态相对单一的免税购物区，不少游客感慨“逛一小时就结束”。

四 | 今年2月焕新开街后，这里完成了迭代升级，蜕变为集文化体验、商贸交流、休闲娱乐于一体的文商旅综合体。漫步街区，店铺鳞次栉比，烟火气息扑面而来。在1号免税商城1.6万平方米的空间内，300多个台湾品牌的商品琳琅满目；“平潭有礼”文创商店里2600多款文创产品精巧别致；植觉闽台植物馆内，两岸特色草木生机盎然；台湾铁路便当、盐酥鸡等特色小吃香气四溢。小镇蓬勃发展的背后，台胞是不可或缺的核心力量。

五 | 平潭综合实验区文旅集团总经理林彦介绍，台湾小镇创新探索“大台商牵头、中小台商参股”的组团招商模式，吸引大批台商跨海来岚扎根兴业。

六 | 台式餐饮、茶饮、文创等业态相继落地，交织出浓浓海峡烟火。 “我们把家乡的风味带到这里，和越来越多的台胞抱团创业，在这里既有事业，也有家的归属感。

七 | ”台商王志强和记者分享道。

八 | 林彦介绍，小镇现有入驻企业150家，其中台资企业78家。浓郁的两岸风情持续释放吸引力，今年2月焕新开街以来，累计接待游客约55.8万人次，同比增长191%。如果说台湾小镇承载的是海峡人间烟火，那么，将两岸的文化联结溯源至7000年前的壳丘头遗址博物馆，则成为两岸同胞获得情感共鸣的精神坐标。走进壳丘头遗址博物馆，陶器、石器、贝器等600余件文物系统铺展出东南沿海距今7500年至3000年的史前考古序列，证实平潭是南岛语族向外迁徙的重要踏板，也印证了海峡两岸史前阶段便有着密切的文化交融往来。 “文物不能只静态地陈列在展馆玻璃之内。”平潭国际南岛语族研究院学术交流部主任林颖说。依托海峡两岸南岛语族考古教学实习基地，博物馆常态化举办闽台海洋文化探源研学营、两岸青少年考古体验等活动，把考古成果转化为面对面的交流平台，在两岸青年互动交往之间，同源共脉的历史记忆就此传递。数据显示，依托博物馆与考古基地这一复合平台，平潭累计承接国内外各类参访研学活动940多场次，参与总人数超2.8万人次。从礁石海岸的隔海相望，到台湾小镇的烟火相聚，再到壳丘头遗址博物馆的文明寻根，乡愁期盼、人间烟火、远古回响，循着两岸同源的文化脉络层层铺展，平潭立足独有的地缘禀赋与文明根脉，以文化为桥，书写两岸文旅融合、心灵相通的崭新篇章。